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Forex Information Blog Site
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Despite the slump in Asia’s reserves, China’s holdings rose in November of 2005. The Asian slump in foreign exchange reserves excluded China’s, who submits reports on a quarterly basis.
Analysts say Asia’s foreign exchange reserves could have increased if China’s holdings were included in the November report. China’s trade and current account surpluses were high last November and would have prompted the central bank to buy Dollars.
With last published reserves at $769 billion last September, China’s reserves would have boosted Asia’s reserves to $2.64 trillion. Asia’s foreign exchange reserves would have increased by $194 billion in 2005 due to China’s reserve increase at $159 billion in the first nine months of the year.
Analysts speculate that the surging reserves might prompt China to diversify some of its reserve holdings into gold, which have further driven gold prices to increase by 8% at $540.90 per ounce from $495.0 per ounce.
(Source: Asia Forex Reserves Fall In Nov As Funds Flee Malaysia, Daily Times Site Edition)
The foreign exchange reserves of Malaysia fell by $4 billion last November 2005 as many fled due to the disappointment over the appreciation of the country’s currency.
According to the Daily Times Website, investors were discouraged by a meager appreciation in the Ringgit, which only gained 0.6% since July 21 this year at 3.7785 per $1. The increase was a very short of investors’ expectations who have poured in funds in Malaysian bonds since 2004 since the Ringgit was anticipated to rise by 10% come 2005.
The drop in Malaysia’s reserves last November 2005 was the second in two straight months. This is then expected to last for another 2 months or so. Economists said that its effect would most likely be the same with short-term funds that will come due in the first quarter of 2006.
Due to this, Malaysia’s decline in foreign exchange reserves have affected Asia’s foreign exchange reserves causing it to fall for the third straight month as a whole by $2.2 billion to $1.87 trillion.
(Source: Asia Forex Reserves Fall In Nov As Funds Flee Malaysia, Daily Times Site Edition)
According to Reuters.com, 2005 is a happy year for the US Dollar. Rallying at 13% against an index of currencies this year, the Dollar ends the year on a strong note after a three-year "bear run" between 2001 and 2004.
It has, in fact, "risen nearly 15% against the Yen and Euro this year" thereby bolstering its interest rate advantage. The Dollars 13% increase is its first gain in four years and its best performance since 1984. Its index also rose at the same 13% increase making it the best since 1997.
Factors that contributed to this increase includes the strong US consumer sentiment data, data on existing US home sales, and the high incidence of Dollar buying since the Christmas Holidays.
Despite these, investors remained hesitant to run any risk at the moment since the Dollar remained behind the Euro as data from Germany strengthened the latter, closing at $1.1844 with a 0.1% increase over the Dollar.
(Source: Dollar Holds Firm In Thin Trade Before US Data, Reuters.Com)
Asian markets were seen to be volatile the week of December 18, 2005 with year-end holidays fast approaching and trading volumes expected to thin out.
"Given the stellar run many markets have had in the last few weeks, regional stocks look particularly vulnerable to any profit taking," Pakistan’s Daily Times Website said.
The website added that Asia’s top three performing major share markets (South Korea, Japan and India) all hit fresh milestones for the week ended December 16 after markets have been on fire for the past month. This makes the market liable to the risk that people will start locking those profits for the year before they go on holidays.
As continued concerns over the impact of a stronger South Korean Won could cap broader gains for Korea, mid-December forex reserves are expected to increase as buying shows to be still strong while Hong Kong’s currency continues to be pegged to the US Dollar.
(Highlights of Asian Markets Seen Volatile Next Week, DailyTimes.Com.Pk)
The US Dollar struggled in Tokyo’s trading last December 15 after plunging a day earlier due to trade deficits. According to Reuters, the market braced for more short-covering that had boosted the Yen to its steepest one-day rise in nearly four years when the U.S. currency fell by more than 2% against the Yen on December 13, 2005.
Other currencies who well against the Yen include the Euro who suffered its worse one-day fall versus the Yen since July at 1.6%, together with the New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar and British Pound.
With the market open for more dollar selling and prone to react sharply to weaker data than strong data, the dollar is firmly capped with lots of sell orders that more than offset dip buying by Japanese importers and investors, who had been borrowing the Yen for almost no cost yet selling it to buy high-yielding currencies in carry trades.
(Highlights of Dollar Struggles After Record Trade Deficit, Reuters South Africa Website)
There are three ways to spot a forex trading scam, says OpenPR.Com, that you should know about to protect yourself. These are outrageous promises, large profit guarantees, and employment ads for forex traders.
As with any scam technique, forex scams include too-good-to-be-true deals. Thus companies or individuals who claim that their forex strategy carry little or no risk at all are scammers, primarily because forex trading is a naturally high-risk-for-loss transaction.
This is also why OpenPR.Com points out that not even the best and most experienced forex trading firm can guarantee that they can make a profit on any given day. Individuals who have claims to the contrary should raise a red flag for you.
Finally, groups who lure in individuals under the guise of offering employment via a free practice account to be able to trade is another possible sign of a scam.
"They (scammers) provide individuals with a free, practice account…are told that they have traded so well, that they will be offered a job to trade for the company. It doesn’t exactly work out that way. Instead, individuals are directed to invest their own money, which they will never see again" OpenPR.Com reveals.
(Source: Spotting FOREX Scams, OpenPR Website)
According to OpenPR.Com, Forex scams have become as popular as Forex trading itself. The potential high returns associated with forex trading has prompted some deceitful individuals to venture into scamming those who are not adept in the field.
"Scams are being advertised over the radio, on television, in newspapers and, of course, over the Internet. Investors who unwittingly fall for these schemes generally lose their entire investments. FOREX investors must be vigilant…for potential forex trading scams," the website said.
It seems that in every field of potential profitability, criminals abide as well. The fact remains that, despite Forex trading becoming increasingly popular, illegal and illegitimate forex schemes are on the rise as well.
Because of this, OpenPR.Com advises in its article Spotting Forex Scams that investors must be aware since "there are many groups and individuals who are more than ready and equipped to swindle unassuming persons out of their money."
Market Research Company Asia Pulse released today (December 5, 2005) that the Australian Dollar was being traded against the Japanese Yen by Sydney traders due to the higher yield expected from the said transaction.
The Asia Pulse said, in an article posted at Yahoo! Finance, that Australia’s current official cash rate of 5.50 per cent came out of the cross rate trading at 90.35/43.
"The Aussie dollar remains well bid, while the Yen still suffers against the US dollar, which has driven the Aussie/Yen higher…at levels not seen for quite a while…not since May 1997," Asia Pulse’s article on Yahoo! Finance emphasized.
Another factor contributing to this yield include firmer commodity prices such as gold at US$500 an ounce. However, despite the Aussie dollar’s increase, currency markets worldwide will remain unaffected since this will only affect an increase in Australia’s GDP, Asia Pulse reported.
So far, the Aussie dollar’s growth has shown a relative increase in the local economy there as inventories for the quarter ended September have already gained by 0.3% along with company profits by 3.9%.
(Source: Australian Dollar Higher To Noon-Dec. 5, 2005, Yahoo! Finance)
India’s Rupee joined the bandwagon of currency increases against the Dollar the first week of December, together with most Asian currencies whose countries experience high remittance inflows during the Christmas Holidays.
According to Hindu.com, "the Rupee rallied smartly against the US currency early today (Dec. 9) on fresh exporter dollar sales amid a retreating dollar overseas in moderately active trade at the Interbank Foreign Exchange market."
"The domestic unit was quoted at Rs 46.1750/1850 per dollar in late morning deals, sharply higher from Thursday’s close of Rs 46.25/26 per dollar following a distinctly firm start at Rs 46.14/16 per dollar," the website added.
The Rupee’s forex high was a result of the retreating dollar overseas and partly by steady FII inflows. During the said week, the Rupee was quoted at Rs 54.51/53 to the Euro Pound, Rs 80.84/86 to the Pound Sterling, and Rs 38.29/31 to the Japanese Yen.
(Source: Rupee Rallies Smartly Against the USD In Early Trade, Hindu.Com)
According to US Treasury Secretary John Snow during a press briefing at the close of a meeting of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven leading industrial nations in London, China’s July reforms to its currency regime was not sufficient amidst the welcomed the end of the yuan being pegged to the US dollar in a favor of other currencies.
"China’s new exchange-rate system has operated with too much rigidity. This rigidity constrains exchange-rate flexibility in the region and thus poses risk to China’s economy and the global economy," Snow said.
Snow also challenged the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to implement its most fundamental responsibility to step up its oversight of members’ exchange-rate policies since the organization’s advice has been too sparing or muted in such issues.
Acting on the US Treasury’s foreign exchange system’s report to the US Congress, Snow’s challenge was in addition to his call last week to IMF’s Managing Director to prepare a report on currency policies for presentation to the IMF board next year.
(Sournce: G7: Tsy’s Snow: IMF Forex Advice Often Too Muted, TheBusinessOnline.Com)
For the first time since late 1987, Asian trading for gold prices broke through the critical threshold of $500 an ounce last November 29, 2005. The boost in gold prices was driven by investor demand for the metal as a diversifying asset prompting the rise in prices in Japan, says Business Week Online.
"A rise in the value of the dollar against the euro reversed the rally early trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The December gold contract was at $497, down $1.30 from the previous day," the Business Week website said, adding that "Gold’s appeal as a hedge against currency weakness, inflation and financial instabilities in general has driven the recent rise in prices."
According to the website, gold’s heightened status is apparently being encouraged by Japan’s strong technical trends and possibly concerns on further yen weakness along with Russia’s continuous demand for it in a bid to diversify its foreign reserves.
(Source: Gold Breaks Through $500 An Ounce In Asia, BusinessWeek.Com)
As of November 30, the Canadian Dollar stays unperturbed by political rifts says Dow Jones Newswire Column’s in the Yahoo Website.
"The long-anticipated fall of the Liberal government in Ottawa late Monday and what’s shaping up as an extraordinarily vituperative Christmas election campaign isn’t likely to derail the Canadian currency march toward new highs, which is being powered by superior economic fundamentals, inflows of foreign investment capital, and mounting Bank of Canada rate hike expectations," it said.
Despite the Canadian government’s forced dissolution due to a vote of non-confidence in the Prime Minister’s government, the Canadian dollar remains undisturbed along with the trading for it since it is continuously supported by the election outcome such as pledges from both the Liberals and the Conservatives to maintain balanced budgets and relative fiscal conservatism.
Canada will hold their election on January 23, 2006 ending the Prime Minister’s government’s inception last June 2004.
(Source: Canada Dollars Stays Unperturbed By Politics, Yahoo Website)
The International Herald Tribune reports that the Philippine Peso is currently enjoying an increase in value over the US Dollar.
"The Philippine Peso rose to its highest level in eight months on Tuesday on speculation nationals working overseas are sending money back for the year-end holidays. The peso climbed 0.4% according to the Bankers Association of the Philippines," reveals the Tribune’s website.
According to the website’s market round-up, the gains in the Philippines’ peso are remittance driven since it is currently the season for remittances in the country.
Bloomberg.Com, on the other hand, discloses that the Philippine peso had its fifth weekly gain in six on speculations Filipinos working overseas will increase the amount of money they send home toward the Christmas holiday season.
Data shows that a 28% increase in remittances was recorded in September as Philippine nationals returned $941 million resulting to foreign exchange rates measuring at a range of PHP53-PHP55 to USD1 as of November 26, 2005 and even better in 2006, Bloomberg.Com adds.
(Source: Korean Won Has Weekly Loss On Stocks; Philippine Peso Rises, Bloomberg Asia Website and Market Roundup: Currencies Business Asia, Blackenterprise.Com)
Gold prices are up in Russia, thanks to expensive oil and the unstable forex market there. The RIA Novosti Website through their Expensive Oil, Unstable Forex Market Push Gold Price Up article released today said that experts are attributing the unprecedented growth in Russia’s gold price to high oil price and the unstable forex market.
According to the website, gold has become an alternative, reliable, and liquid asset and instrument in to determine which petrodollar to invest in since the Euro’s slide against the Dollar.
Oil prices, it quoted experts, are the main factor influencing gold price movements and not the amount of gold mined in a particular area, as well as the demand for gold in an area like what happened recently in Asia.
Other factors affecting the gold price are increases in the discount rate by a country’s central bank and increases in the share of gold in a country’s central bank reserve, the RIA Novosti website article added.
Newbies in the foreign exchange industry will surely look forward in getting their copy of the new book released by Capital Currencies Ltd.
According to BobsGuide.Com, a website that provides software & technology advice in asset management, banking, and risk management, the new book will be beneficial to anyone who is in the market wanting to buy foreign currency.
"As the foreign exchange market is unregulated, they are vulnerable and have little in the way of protection. So we at Capital Currencies wanted to give them and everyone else in the market place, some pointers for money when buying foreign currency," BobsGuide.Com quoted of Capital Currencies.
Capital Currencies is a wholesale foreign currency price, spot & forward for both corporate and private clients. The company aims to give customers the best exchange rate and going the extra mile through their new book since most of their clients have no experience in buying foreign currency.
India has recently revealed its plans to double its foreign exchange earnings in the next three years through the country’s tourism efforts. It has also disclosed its goal to be the number one foreign exchange earner, although it was not clarified whether this will be on the level of global or regional charts.
In an interview posted at Rediff.com, India’s Tourism Minister said that India expects to attain $10 billion in foreign exchange earnings in the next three years, which it sees it can easily attain after gaining $4.8 billion in forex earnings last 2004.
India’s transformation into a tourist destination and recent series of international acknowledgements, the Tourism Minister said, are other reasons this forex goal will be attained as planned.
According to the Minister, everyone can see the tell tale signs that India’s tourism is booming such as the title it just received from the National Geographical Traveller for being the land of mystery and majesty and from the Lonely Planet as one of the top 5 destinations of the world.
(Source: Tourism To Be No. 1 Forex Earner, Rediff.Com)
A summit to be held in India on November 22, 2005 will discuss the recent forex issues affecting the global market place and India’s as well. Called the 2005 Hindustan Times Leadership Summit, the gathering will attempt to identify the impact of global events on India’s economy and bulging forex reserve.
The head of London-based Nasdaq Charlotte Crosswell will be leading the summit together with India’s top local officials such as M Damodaran, India’s securities market regulator, and Ravi Narain, India’s National Stock Exchange managing director.
A two-day summit, India’s finance minister P Chidambaram, a key instrument in liberalizing India’s financial markets, will end the summit with keynotes on building a better future for the country. Chidambaram currently faces the tough job of guiding India’s next generation reforms in balance with the coalition politics compulsions.
Other topics to be discussed in the summit include the possible co-existence of shareholder value and service to society, India’s telecom networks, and other reforms needed by the industry.
(Source: The Bottom Line: What’s In It For India?, Hindustantimes.Com)
The US Dollar regains ground in the closing of yesterday’s trading in Tokyo, Japan. Forbes.com revealed, based on what dealers said, that the US dollar firmed again against the yen in early afternoon trade after an earlier bout of profit taking had briefly arrested its upward rise.
"The US unit had eased back after hitting a fresh 27-month high of 11.92 yen in overnight trade in New York…the dollar was at 118.92 yen, up from 118.86 yen in early Sydney but up from 1.1710 in New York," the website added.
According to Forbes.Com, the US Dollar’s return to the top slot was driven by comments from US Federal Reserve Chair nominee Ben Bernanke on fighting the inflation, aired to the Senate committee also yesterday.
Another factor behind this increase is the continued positive confidence of investors on the continuing wide interest rate differentials between US and Japanese assets. Currently, the Japanese Prime Minister has put an end to their central bank’s extra loose monetary policy.
(Highlights of Forex- US Dollar Firms Again In Tokyo Trade After Earlier Profit Taking, Forbes.Com)
The Hyveld Seed Company in Zimbabwe, Africa was called to court last week on the account of the two checks it received allegedly as payment for foreign currency deals despite being an unauthorized agent.
Appearing before the Harare magistrate court, the Hyveld Seed Company denied allegations that it was involved in illegal foreign currency transactions that amounted to $900,000. Hyveld Seed Company representative Trevor Hedges said that the two checks were not payments for foreign currency.
The checks were received from two transactions arising from dealings with Treger Holdings Zimbabwe’s sister company Ger and Company who instructed them the said sum of money into its offshore Swiss account during two occasions.
But data seem to point that it was indeed a foreign currency transaction since Treger Holdings paid them the two checks immediately after the money was transferred.
Source: Seed Firm Accused Of Illegal Forex Dealings, allAfrica.com
In lieu of the fragile financial systems inherent in emerging economies, Asian Development Bank (ADB) cautions China and Japan to take precautionary steps so as not to deter the progress of the upcoming regional economic integration.
ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda emphasizes the immediate need for exchange rate adjustments but notes that it should be done in gradual steps supported by the government. This support, Kuroda stressed, should be in the form of control on the flow of funds maintained to cushion the shock of making exchange rates more flexible.
Kuroda adds that relaxing capital control should come after the revaluation of the Renminbi and not before it or at the same time. Liberalizing the outflow of funds first is risky since inflows and outflows are delicately linked. Doing so makes it possible to avoid a currency or capital account crisis, which could not be afforded at this time since China’s health is too important to falter for sustainable growth of the regional and global economies.
Highlights of ADB Chief Calls For Gradual Forex Reform, The Peninsula Website
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